Variance of Geometric Distribution/Formulation 1
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Theorem
Let $X$ be a discrete random variable with the geometric distribution with parameter $p$ for some $0 < p < 1$.
- $\map X \Omega = \set {0, 1, 2, \ldots} = \N$
- $\map \Pr {X = k} = \paren {1 - p} p^k$
Then the variance of $X$ is given by:
- $\var X = \dfrac p {\paren {1-p}^2}$
Proof 1
From the definition of Variance as Expectation of Square minus Square of Expectation:
- $\var X = \expect {X^2} - \paren {\expect X}^2$
From Expectation of Function of Discrete Random Variable:
- $\ds \expect {X^2} = \sum_{x \mathop \in \Omega_X} x^2 \map \Pr {X = x}$
- Let $q = 1 - p$
Thus:
\(\ds \expect {X^2}\) | \(=\) | \(\ds \sum_{k \mathop \ge 1} k^2 q p^k\) | Geometric Distribution: Formulation 1, with $p + q = 1$ | |||||||||||
\(\ds \) | \(=\) | \(\ds p \sum_{k \mathop \ge 1} k^2 q p^{k-1}\) | ||||||||||||
\(\ds \) | \(=\) | \(\ds p \paren {\frac 2 {q^2} - \frac 1 q}\) | Variance of Shifted Geometric Distribution: Proof 1 |
Then:
\(\ds \var X\) | \(=\) | \(\ds \expect {X^2} - \paren {\expect X}^2\) | ||||||||||||
\(\ds \) | \(=\) | \(\ds p \paren {\frac 2 {\paren {1 - p}^2} - \frac 1 {1 - p} } - \frac {p^2} {\paren {1 - p}^2}\) | Expectation of Geometric Distribution: Formulation 1: $\expect X = \dfrac p {1 - p}$ | |||||||||||
\(\ds \) | \(=\) | \(\ds \frac {2 p} {\paren {1 - p}^2} - \frac p {1 - p} \paren {\frac {1 - p} {1 - p} } - \frac {p^2} {\paren {1 - p}^2}\) | multiplying by $1$ | |||||||||||
\(\ds \) | \(=\) | \(\ds \frac {2p - p + p^2 - p^2} {\paren {1 - p}^2}\) | ||||||||||||
\(\ds \) | \(=\) | \(\ds \frac p {\paren {1 - p}^2}\) |
$\blacksquare$
Proof 2
From Variance of Discrete Random Variable from PGF, we have:
- $\var X = \map {\Pi_X} 1 + \mu - \mu^2$
where $\mu = \map E x$ is the expectation of $X$.
From the Probability Generating Function of Geometric Distribution, we have:
- $\map {\Pi_X} s = \dfrac q {1 - ps}$
where $q = 1 - p$.
From Expectation of Geometric Distribution, we have:
- $\mu = \dfrac p q$
From Derivatives of PGF of Geometric Distribution, we have:
- $\map {\Pi_X} s = \dfrac {2 q p^2} {\paren {1 - ps}^3}$
Putting $s = 1$ using the formula $\map {\Pi_X} 1 + \mu - \mu^2$:
\(\ds \var X\) | \(=\) | \(\ds \dfrac {2 q p^2} {\paren {1 - p}^3} + \dfrac p q - \paren {\dfrac p q}^2\) | ||||||||||||
\(\ds \) | \(=\) | \(\ds \dfrac {2 \paren {1 - p} p^2} {\paren {1 - p}^3} + \dfrac p {1 - p} \paren {\dfrac {\paren {1 - p}^2 } {\paren {1 - p}^2} } - \dfrac {p^2} {\paren {1 - p}^2 } \paren {\dfrac {1 - p} {1 - p} }\) | multiplying by $1$ | |||||||||||
\(\ds \) | \(=\) | \(\ds \dfrac {2 p^2 - 2 p^3 + p - 2 p^2 + p^3 - p^2 + p^3} {\paren {1 - p}^3}\) | ||||||||||||
\(\ds \) | \(=\) | \(\ds \dfrac {p - p^2} {\paren {1 - p}^3}\) | ||||||||||||
\(\ds \) | \(=\) | \(\ds \dfrac p {\paren {1 - p}^2}\) |
$\blacksquare$